Monday, July 2, 2012

A Calculation Reset

Obama                          232

Romney                        194

Tossups                         112

Please note that there is a material difference between the averages of last week and this week.  This is partially due to adjustments in the data in order to make an “apples to apples” calculation.  Some opinion maps break out leaning states (just outside the margin of error) and some maps include such states in their total, without breaking them out.  The averages now include all leaning state data, thus eliminating an average of a lot of apples with a few oranges.  
The results this week also reflect the slight wind in the battleground states that has appeared at Obama’s back and in Romney’s face.

The impact of both of these changes is to modestly increase Obama’s lead, while materially reducing the number of competitive tossups.


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