Sunday, July 29, 2012

Will positive or negative Olympic ads be most effective?

“The tale of the Olympics ad tape so far: President Obama is going big and positive, the GOP is sticking with smaller, negative attacks.”

Romney’s greatest challenge to win the swing states
"The president has had the worst three months of any incumbent, due to the economy, since George HW Bush in 1992, and yet Romney has lost traction among key demographic groups in the vital swing states. He has got to get this behind him or he's going to face summer definition à la [Bob] Dole and [John] Kerry."
Romney’s path to victory?
“… the path to 270 flows from the national horserace. For months now, Romney has been trailing Obama by between one and three points in national polling averages. That’s not a huge amount, obviously, but it’s significant, and it helps explain why Obama seems to be outperforming Romney in swing states. But if the national race were to shift a few point in Romney’s direction so that it’s dead even, new and potentially surprising Electoral College possibilities would present themselves.”

Special Speculatron Electoral College opinion

"And so we've once again come to the part where your Speculatronners make their trademarked Electoral College projection, which is -- as always -- based on a mix of careful poll study, an analysis of prevailing economic trends, candidates "Klout" scores, and whatever we learned picking through the trash of "soccer moms."
Obviously, this week's big story is Mitt Romney's headlong plunge into Gaffetown during his trip to England. We lean heavily in the direction that eventually, it will not prove to be much of a game-changer. Of course, we're here to try to capture the current state of the race, based upon our best cogitations, so in the immediate sense, Romney's stumbles do tend to glare brightly. Even so, a question that's tough to answer is this: do Romney's mistakes necessarily cause esteem to accrue in Obama's column?
It's a tough matter to divine with any certainty, but here's our prediction. Mitt Romney is not going to win any of the United Kingdom's electoral votes. (Probably!)"


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