Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Swing State Musings

The only job stats that matter:

The Wall Street Journal’s path to victory for Romney:

Will swing state independent voters go for Romney’s (Bush fiscal policy on steroids) budget proposal?

Results of CNN poll showing Romney leading in battleground states published on Newsmax:


The only problem is that CNN included three very pink non-battlegrounds in the group of states that were polled -- Arizona, Indiana and Missouri.  (Nate Silver puts the probability of Romney winning those three at over 75%, and neither campaign is spending ad dollars there.)


And here is Nate Silver's analysis of an Obama outlier poll:


Moral to the story:  One has to read more than the headlines.


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