Swing State Musings

The only job stats that matter:

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-chart-shows-why-obamas-economy-problems-arent-as-bad-as-everyone-says-2012-6

The Wall Street Journal’s path to victory for Romney:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/26/romneys_game_changers.html

Will swing state independent voters go for Romney’s (Bush fiscal policy on steroids) budget proposal?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/romneys-budget-plan-doesnt-add-up-2012-06-18?link=MW_story_featcomm


Results of CNN poll showing Romney leading in battleground states published on Newsmax:

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/obama-romney-national-poll/2012/07/03/id/444302

The only problem is that CNN included three very pink non-battlegrounds in the group of states that were polled -- Arizona, Indiana and Missouri.  (Nate Silver puts the probability of Romney winning those three at over 75%, and neither campaign is spending ad dollars there.)

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/104624/stop-the-battleground-subsamples

And here is Nate Silver's analysis of an Obama outlier poll:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/outlier-polls-are-no-substitute-for-news/

Moral to the story:  One has to read more than the headlines.