Friday, August 3, 2012

Big Obama advantage among Pennsylvania and Ohio women
Traditionally, Democrats do better among women than Republicans, but the gender gap in this poll was remarkable: more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania.”

Voter ID laws boost Romney’s chances in the swing states

The swing states that have implemented voter ID laws are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Florida and Ohio put laws into effect that curb early voting.”

Turnout battle swing states
Turnout-battle swing states …  are those like North Carolina with relatively evenly-matched electoral coalitions but few persuadable voters in the middle. Pennsylvania is a classic example: can Democrats turn out enough voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to overcome the conservative central portion of the state? It’s pretty much the same question in Pennsylvania every cycle and we often get about the same answer. Virginia, whose demographics are similar to North Carolina, is likewise more of a turnout-battle state. That is not to say there are no swing voters there — Virginia has some in its northern suburbs, for instance — but there just aren’t as many as a proportion of the electorate as somewhere like New Hampshire.”

Nate Silver’s analysis of Pew poll shows national race is unchanged

“From the forecast model’s standpoint, therefore, the Pew poll is treated as a four-point lead for Mr. Obama after making these adjustments.  A four-point lead for Mr. Obama is a decent enough number for him, but nothing that should drastically change our understanding of the race.”


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