Independents can tip a competitive election

 “Independents who describe their ideology as moderate—arguably, the bull’s-eye at the dead center of the electorate—may be a group especially worth watching. Reagan carried them by roughly 20-point margins in his two races. They broke narrowly for George H.W. Bush in 1988 and more substantially for Clinton in his two victories. George W. Bush lost moderate independents by just 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively, in his two races, but they tilted sharply to Obama, providing him an emphatic 16-point edge over McCain.This will likely be one of many groups among which Romney must meet or exceed the second Bush’s performance to overcome Obama—and the ongoing demographic changes that have made the road to the White House even slightly steeper for Republicans than it was in 2008.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-conventions/the-hidden-history-of-the-american-electorate-20120823

 

Daily Kos electoral college analysis

“So [what] do this week's numbers tell us? That the only place the Romney ticket got a legitimate Ryan bounce was in his home state of Wisconsin.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/23/1123491/-Battleground-snapshot-The-race-in-the-Electoral-College-isn-t-tightening