Sunday, August 12, 2012

6% to 8% undecided voters
“ … Internal and public polls consistently show far fewer undecided voters than four years ago …”

Obama’s difficulty in challenging the Ryan budget

A bigger challenge for Democrats may be how to make these arguments believable to true swing voters. Last month, The New York Times reported on a set of focus groups conducted in late 2011 by the pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA, in which participants were informed that "Romney supported the Ryan budget plan — and thus championed 'ending Medicare as we know it' — while also advocating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." According to the Times report, the attacks had little impact. The participants "simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing."

Our forecast still has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in Iowa, although his probability of winning the state declined to 63 percent from 67 percent on the new survey. Part of the reason is that, in the absence of a sufficient amount of polling, the model weighs what we call “state fundamentals” fairly heavily.”



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