Monday, October 1, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update
The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             264         
Romney           192

Tossups            82

Obama’s average moved from 232 on July 1 to 255 on August 13, then dropped to 235 on August 27 and has moved up to the current average of 264, the highest average for Obama during the course of the campaign.  Romney’s average has fluctuated between 197 and 192 during this same period.
All of the “right wing” maps (Fox News, Rassmussen, Townhall,, Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal) assign Obama between 237 and 328 votes and Romney between 191 and 203 votes.

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps which toss out the tossups and assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls. 

The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           333
Romney         205

Tossups           0

The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 79% probability of winning and Romney with a 21% probability of winning.


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