Wednesday, October 3, 2012

High tech election predictions

Wes Colley:
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.”

Nate Silver:
If you take the average between the FiveThirtyEight model and the consensus betting lines, you’d get about a two-in-three chance of Mr. Obama winning another term.

Sam Wang:
 Obama appears to be significantly overperforming in critical battlegrounds compared with the rest of the country.


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