Sunday, November 4, 2012

Romney could still win
Consider these past polling errors in the context of the 2 to 3 percentage points or less that separate Obama and Romney in many battleground states. It would take a consistent overstatement of Obama's margins -- just 2 to 3 points -- in the battlegrounds to create a scenario in which Romney wins despite the current polling numbers. History says an overstatement of that magnitude is rare but within the realm of possibility.

In a separate article, Stanford political scientist Simon Jackman explains in detail how he has used past polling errors to convert the Pollster tracking model's probability that a candidate leads in the polls to a probability that he will win the election.

The most recent run of the model, as of this writing, confirms the obvious: The probability of an Obama lead in the key battleground states is very high, given that virtually all polling in these states shows him ahead. However, the potential for a rare "black swan" polling failure as big as the national polls of 1980 or 1992 is still real, given past experience -- amounting to a roughly 1-in-3 chance that such an error would affect the outcome of states like Ohio and Iowa.”

Romney could win if swing state polls are biased

“President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.”

Undecided voters

“.  .  .  there's little evidence to say that undecideds are breaking in a big way. Note that they are also not "independents," which are a different beast. Most independents have a distinct preference for a candidate, but not a party. Charles Franklin has analyzed undecideds and finds that they break nearly equally.

Virgil Goode in Virginia
In the latest Fox News poll in Virginia, Mr. Goode is backed by 1 percent of likely voters.”

Gary Johnson in Ohio

According to a Gravis Marketing Ohio poll, Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson is running with 10.6% in the Buckeye State. With Barack Obama running with 44.5% and Mitt Romney running with 37.8%, it essentially takes Romney out of the race there”


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