Monday, October 15, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             240               -13

Romney           194               + 4

Tossups           104               + 9

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps that assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           298                 -17

Romney         240                 +17

Tossups           0


The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 64% probability of winning and Romney with a 36% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 22 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.


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