Monday, October 8, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             253               -11

Romney           190               -  2

Tossups            95                +13

There are 14 online Electoral College opinion maps which toss out the tossups and assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           314                 -19

Romney         223                 +19

Tossups           0


The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 68% probability of winning and Romney with a 32% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 29 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.


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