Monday, October 22, 2012


Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:
Obama             239              

Romney           198              
Tossups           100              

Last week, the averages were Obama 240, Romney 194 and Tossups 104.

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps that assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:
Obama           287                

Romney         251                
Tossups           0

Last week, the averages were Obama 297, Romney 240 and Tossups 0.


The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 64% probability of winning and Romney with a 36% probability of winning, unchanged from last week.

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