Political predictions

“ … whereas people who are trying to make the perfect prediction and take political science and treat it as though it's physics are failing much more often," he says. An appreciation of uncertainty "requires a dose of humility that the weather forecasters have that the (pundits) don't."

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/13/living/polls-uncertainty/index.html

An extraordinary Arizona presidential poll

“President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/