Wednesday, September 5, 2012

An electoral college shortcut from a prediction markets guru
If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states. Conversely, if Obama can carry just one of those states, he will likely win the election.”

Virginia may now be a three candidate race
It is unclear how big an effect Goode’s presence on the Virginia ballot would have. In 2008, President Obama became the first Democrat in more than 40 years to win the state, and head-to-head polls this time around have shown Romney and Obama close to tied. Most surveys of the contest have not included any third-party candidates, but Public Policy Polling — which uses automated phone calls rather than live interviews — released Virginia polls in May and July with Goode getting 5 and 9 percent, respectively.”


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