Ohio

"... based on the data so far this year, Ohio has been slightly Democratic-leaning relative to the country as a whole. That reflects a reversal from the usual circumstances. Normally, Ohio — though very close to the national averages — leans Republican by two points or so.
...
It’s by no means impossible that Mr. Romney could win the Electoral College despite losing Ohio, but it would be an uphill battle."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/

If Romney’s ads go positive, he may gain independent voter support

“…the Republicans are doing the exact wrong thing by making 90 percent of their ads attacks on Obama. Although voters always say this but rarely mean it, they really do want Romney to go positive. They are interested in learning about his accomplishments (or lack thereof), especially during his term as governor.”

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/25/to_move_polls_romney_needs_to_go_positive_114903.html

Obama continues to take chances:  pro-choice ads begin airing in battleground states

“The commercial … is airing in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada and Ohio. It will start running in Colorado on Monday.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/26/obama-campaign-airs-second-ad-hitting-romney-on-abortion/

 Hispanic voters in swing states

“Hispanic voters could prove decisive in the presidential race in such swing states as Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. The challenge for the Obama campaign will be to get them to the polls. Sixty-eight percent of the Hispanics surveyed said they were interested in the presidential election compared with 79 percent of all voters.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-25/obama-leads-romney-by-44-points-among-hispanic-voters-poll-says

Rasmussen Nevada poll:  +5% Obama

According to Nate Silver, Rasmussen is one of the pollsters that have a “house effect” that tends to slightly overestimate Romney strength.  If he is correct, the Nevada spread is probably a few points north of 5%.  Nevada is a critical battleground.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president

Romney’s dilemma re swing state economies

“It’s clear that the economic news isn’t quite as rosy in these swing states as their GOP governors (and Barack Obama) might want us to believe—especially for middle-class and poor workers. But that's unlikely to stop governors in painting as bright a picture as they can. That's left the Romney team trying to focus credit on the GOP governors' policies rather than the national ones.”

http://prospect.org/article/romneys-swing-state-dilemma

Huge difference in Florida poll of landline users and cell users

“… a critical finding from the most recent SurveyUSA poll of Florida, which has Obama up 5. Note the following cross-tab:
Landline (75%): Romney 50, Obama 44
Cell Phone (25%) Obama 59, Romney 25.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/21/1112403/-Florida-Poll-Landline-users-6-Romney-Cell-users-34-Obama

Romney tax returns and Bain issues getting some traction among independents

"More than a third of voters who are registered to a party or as an independent said in the online survey that what they had heard about Romney's taxes and his time at Bain Capital private equity firm had given them a less favorable impression of the Republican candidate.

And particularly worrying for Romney is that a large slice of independent voters -- whom he needs to win the Nov. 6 election -- are also buying into the Obama campaign's portrayal of him as a ruthless businessman who may be hiding something in his taxes."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/24/mitt-romney-bain-poll_n_1697021.html


Poll:  Obama maintains lead in battleground states

"In a smaller sample of registered voters living in 12 battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), the incumbent president’s lead over Romney is eight points, 49 to 41, which is essentially unchanged from June."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/24/12933159-nbcwsj-poll-negative-campaign-takes-toll-on-candidates-obama-up-six-points?lite&google_editors_picks=true

Just what kind of game is a Presidential election?

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2012/07/30/120730taco_talk_lepore

Swing state employment stats

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/la-pn-could-swingstate-unemployment-spell-trouble-for-obama-20120720,0,5508744.story

Electoral College opinion map update
(including new maps recently added -- Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen & Los Angeles Times)
Average of 19 maps:

Obama             233

Romney           195

Tossups           110


106 days before Election Day.

Potential impact of Latino voter registration in battleground states

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/07/latino_voters.html



Most swing voters and independents don't change their voting preference between June and November

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/it-dont-mean-a-thing-if-it-aint-got-that-swing/



Mobilization is more effective than persuasion

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-candidates-targeting-the-swing-vote-maybe-not-20120719,0,5904757.story