Obama leads Romney on Medicare issue

“President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney on the question of who would better handle Medicare in the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, recent polls of likely voters in all three states found. But as Election Day nears Mr. Romney has narrowed the gap in Florida and Virginia.”

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/in-swing-states-obama-leads-on-handling-of-medicare/

Working class voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan

“In yielding Pennsylvania to President Obama, Romney has raised the stakes in Ohio and Florida, almost certainly making both states must win contests if he is to reach 270 Electoral College votes. Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead by a 1.9 point average in the eight most recent Florida polls and by an average of 4.1 percent in the seven most recent Ohio polls.”

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/whats-wrong-with-pennsylvania/

Breaking down the swing state polls

“A new set of polls conducted by Quinnipiac for the New York Times and CBS News paint a grim picture for Mitt Romney, who faces daunting gaps in three big states.”

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/26/why_romney_is_losing_2/

Romney trying to put three states in play

“Mitt Romney is suddenly plunging into traditionally Democratic-leaning Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and his GOP allies are trying to put Michigan into play. It's forcing President Barack Obama to defend his own turf - he's pouring money into television ads in the states and dispatching top backers - in the campaign's final week.”

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20121030/DA2854680.html

The Polls before Sandy

 “The effects of Hurricane Sandy on next Tuesday’s election are hard to predict. But the storm is likely to have an impact on the volume of polling in the meantime.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/oct-29-polling-slows-as-storm-wreaks-havoc/

 

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             237              

Romney           200              

Tossups           101              

Last week, the averages were Obama 239, Romney 199 and Tossups 100.

 

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps that assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           295                

Romney         243                

Tossups           0

Last week, the averages were Obama 287, Romney 251 and Tossups 0.
 

 

The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 65% probability of winning and Romney with a 35% probability of winning, up 1 for Obama and down 1 for Romney from last week.

Female swing voters

“Whether or not the term “waitress moms” endures, it defines a distinct demographic: blue-collar white women who did not attend college. And they are getting a lot of attention from both campaigns as the presidential race barrels toward its conclusion because even at this late date, pollsters say, many waitress moms have not settled on a candidate. They feel no loyalty to one party or the other, though they tend to side with Republicans.

“Blue-collar women are most likely to be the remaining movable part of the electorate, which is precisely why both campaigns are going at them as hard as they are,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, who is advising Priorities USA, a pro-Obama “super PAC.”

About 9 percent of all voters in 2008 were white women without college degrees who had an annual household income of less than $50,000, according to exit polls.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/us/politics/female-swing-voters-a-coveted-demographic.html?_r=3&partner=rss&emc=rss&

 

Electoral vote analysis by Associated Press

“President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.”

http://www.salon.com/2012/10/28/advantage_obama_in_hunt_for_270_electoral_votes/

 

Obama leads in Virginia in poll that excludes conservative third-party candidates

“President Obama is clinging to a slender four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial battleground state, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely Virginia voters, although he lost the clearer 52-to-44 percent advantage he held in mid-September.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html