Friday, October 19, 2012

Obama leading in Iowa and Wisconsin
The polls, conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 17, found Obama leading by eight points in Iowa, 51 to 43 percent, among likely voters. In Wisconsin, Obama leads by six points, 51 to 45 percent.
. . .

While there's still time for the race to shift, the window for change is smaller in Iowa, where a third of likely voters said they'd already cast their ballot, and 11 percent more said they intended to vote early. Three quarters of Wisconsin voters said they wouldn't vote until Election Day.”

Obama lead widening in Michigan

The Real Clear Politics average in Michigan is a 4.2-percentage-point lead for the president.”

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Romney’s Electoral College challenge
“ … given the state of the electoral map, the current volume of polls, the remaining political issues facing his campaign, and the path that was forced on him since the Reagan era, it is difficult to imagine a Romney victory. The fact is, in this election, the results are not about what is fair, possible, or even right, but rather what the numbers gap says is almost certain.”

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Romney gaining among women voters

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.”


“The electoral map is changing—and changing fast. Just a few weeks ago, Obama was nearing 270 electoral votes. The president appeared to have 265 electoral votes as opposed to 191 for Mitt Romney. As of this morning, however, Obama is only leading by 10 electoral votes, according to Real Clear Politics—201 to 191.  With 146 votes now in the “toss up” category, there are obviously a number of different routes to victory for each candidate. But the most likely path for both men seems increasingly to revolve around Ohio.”

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Political predictions
“ … whereas people who are trying to make the perfect prediction and take political science and treat it as though it's physics are failing much more often," he says. An appreciation of uncertainty "requires a dose of humility that the weather forecasters have that the (pundits) don't."

An extraordinary Arizona presidential poll
President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.”

Monday, October 15, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             240               -13

Romney           194               + 4

Tossups           104               + 9

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps that assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           298                 -17

Romney         240                 +17

Tossups           0


The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 64% probability of winning and Romney with a 36% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 22 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Romney ads in swing states surge

Ad purchases in the presidential race doubled or in some cases tripled last week in swing states such as Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Virginia, tracking data show. The surge is being driven by Romney and well-funded allies, who decided against running more ads earlier in the campaign in favor of a big bang at the end.”