Saturday, August 11, 2012

Howard Fineman on electoral votes added by Ryan
If the point of this election is to win, I don't see how Ryan gets you ANY electoral votes. Romney won't win Wisconsin unless it's a landslide for him.
Meanwhile, Rubio would have secured Florida and moved some Hispanic voters. Florida wasn't in contention two months ago, but today Obama is leading there -- so securing it should have been a tactical priority. [Robert] Portman could have helped in Ohio, perhaps the most critical state in the election. So there is no electoral sense to the Ryan pick. …

Ryan doesn't really change Romney's standing with the conservative base, who plan to vote for him despite reservations.”

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Colorado is a tossup
“ … the race is now close. And yet, both sides also say that Obama has the upper hand in Colorado heading into the fall. (The president leads in the RCP Average by 1.2 percentage points.)”

Romney is in trouble with independent voters
“Among independent voters, the poll indicates President Obama has a 53%-42% lead,” CNN  Polling Director Keating Holland said. “The president holds a nine point advantage among women voters and a smaller six point edge among men.” … “In May, only 40% of independents had an unfavorable view of Romney. Now, 52% of independents have a negative view of him."
“ … independents aren’t monolithic. And Romney has given independent voters who are disappointed in Obama little reason to vote for him. He seems to be making little effort to appeal to that chunk of independents, partially because he can’t because he has to keep shoring up his party’s conservative base.
But to many independent voters, Romney is coming across less as someone running for President who has specific solutions and can make an affirmative case for himself than for President of the Tea Party or the Rush Limbaugh Fan Club.  Traditionally candidates move to the center; Romney is staying where he was during the primaries and with the recent big Tea Party win in Texas, he’s unlikely to move significantly to the center (especially when the term ‘moderate’ is an authentically filthy word to some in the GOP).”
Fox News poll confirms Obama advantage among independents
Independents are twice as likely to say they are comfortable with Obama (33 percent) than with Romney (16 percent) as president.

The top reasons voters give for being uncomfortable with Romney include his positions on the issues, that he’s “phony,” he’s “out of touch,” he’s a Republican and he’s “for the rich.” For Obama, the discomfort comes from his performance as president, unemployment/no economic recovery, his positions on the issues, “everything,” and his health care plan.”

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

What is a moderate voter?
“In an election year with hyper-partisan campaigning aimed at the base, the center of the electorate is often overlooked. Yet moderates have outnumbered liberals and conservatives in every Presidential election since 1976. Moderates don’t just split the difference between conservatives and liberals. They have their own beliefs and values.”

Who are the independent voters?
“…independent voters are less engaged and less informed. …Independents are a hodgepodge; it doesn’t work to look at them as having any common worldview. There are affluent suburban voters who are fiscally conservative and culturally liberal; there are seniors, who are more populist than the population as a whole; and there are a high number of white, blue-collar voters who are deeply angry and have been explosive in election after election. In 2006 and 2008, all these groups voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. In 2010, they voted overwhelmingly for Republicans. Right now, I don’t think we have a clue where they’re going.”

The difference between an independent voter and a moderate voter

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Obama ads defining Romney in Ohio
“ … the strategic risk that Romney has taken by declining — until this week — to run ads that present any counter-narrative about his work at Bain, where he says he gained expertise in creating jobs.  Instead, Romney has been defensive, airing commercials calling Obama's allegations false, but otherwise staying focused on portraying the president as a failure on the economy.”

Why are national polls close to even while swing state polls are trending positive Obama?

“The national numbers aren't changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media.”

“If Mr. Romney holds a 30-point lead in Texas or something — which is worth about 2 points in the national popular vote given its large population — that would help to explain the apparent state poll and national poll discrepancy.”

North Carolina is still a tossup

“Every month in North Carolina the story remains the same- it's a sheer toss up and the way the campaigns have spent here reinforces that.”

Monday, August 6, 2012

Electoral College opinion map update

The average of 22 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             249

Romney           197

Tossups             92

The winning candidate now has 92 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Asian American voters may impact Virginia and Nevada results
“ … despite the fact that their concentration in reliably blue California limits their potential clout, the Asian American swing vote is growing in importance. Like 2008, this year’s presidential focus will again be on the 19 combined electoral votes of Nevada and Virginia, the two swing states with the largest Asian American population shares: 8.4 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.”

Nevada Democratic voter registrations exceed GOP by 2 to 1 margin

“New numbers released this week show Democrats have increased their advantage over Republicans to 47,500 voters.

Since April, Democratic voter registration has increased by 20,500. Republican registration in that time has increased by 9,700.

For another point of comparison that reflects poorly for Republicans, consider that nonpartisan voters — those who pick no party to affiliate with — increased by 11,000. And no one is actively seeking to register them.”

Romney’s Ralph Nader may tip Virginia to Obama
While many on the right fear that Constitution Party presidential candidate Virgil Goode might just draw enough votes in his native Virginia to tip the Old Dominion’s 14 electoral votes from Mitt Romney to Barack Obama, the former six-term congressman made it clear he doesn’t care.”

“ …  his candidacy has Republicans sweating: Goode is pulling fully 9% of Virginia’s vote, according to a mid-July Public Policy Polling survey, leaving Obama ahead of Romney 49% to 35%. In a tight election where Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes could make or break the Romney’s candidacy, even 2% for Goode could pull enough Republicans away to hand the historically red state to Obama in November”.