Ron Paul Write-in Campaign

A Ron Paul write-in campaign has started.

http://www.writeinronpaul2012.org/

Ron Paul will not endorse Romney.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/13191-ron-paul-wont-endorse-romney-sees-essentially-no-difference 

And Libertarian Gary Johnson pushes back:

http://www.examiner.com/article/gary-johnson-says-writing-ron-paul-would-be-meaningless

The Florida Hispanic vote

“While Barack Obama can win a second term without a Florida victory, many analysts see no viable path to the White House for Republican challenger Mitt Romney if he loses the Sunshine State. Voters in Puerto Rico tend to favor Democratic candidates over Republican ones, and registration statistics in central Florida reflect this preference.

However, almost a third of Hispanic voters here have no political party preference. It is these voters that Obama and Romney need to woo.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/07/florida-latino-voters-government-represents?newsfeed=true


 

Intrade

“As David Rothschild, an economist with Microsoft Research, puts it, “one easy way of seeing why Obama is the favorite right now is that Romney would have to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia to win the election.” The election markets say that trifecta is very unlikely.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/your-money/election-prediction-markets-add-clarity-to-a-wacky-week.html?ref=business&_r=0

Obama still leading in Pennsylvania

“President Barack Obama holds an 8-point lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, according to the results of a new poll announced Wednesday evening.”

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/philadelphia-inquirer-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-8

Ohio still leaning Obama 

“Internal Obama polling data show that all swing states have tightened up and that Romney is within the margin of error in Colorado, Florida

Florida

Population (2010): 18,801,310

Registered Voters: 36.00% R, 41.30% D, 22.70% I

Governor: Gov. Rick Scott (R)

Senators: Sen. Clarence Nelson (D), Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Read Full Almanac Profile »

, and Virginia

Virginia

Population (2010): 8,001,024

Registered Voters: 0.00% R, 0.00% D, 0.00% I

Governor: Gov. McDonnell (R)

Senators: Sen. James Webb (D), Sen. Mark Warner (D)

Read Full Almanac Profile »

. In Ohio

Ohio

Population (2010): 11,536,504

Registered Voters: 0.00% R, 0.00% D, 0.00% I

Governor: Gov. John Kasich (R)

Senators: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), Sen. Rob Portman (R)

Read Full Almanac Profile »

, the gap has closed from what was an 8 to 10 point Obama lead to just outside the margin of error. It's now a dogfight across the swing-state battlefield and any sense of pre-debate complacency that some Obama hands feared was creeping into both turnout and fundraising has vanished.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/obama-s-ohio-silver-lining-20121010

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is making an impact

“It is important to note that Johnson is starting to be included in polls. Rasmussen, Gallup, and Public Policy Polling have all recognized it’s time to include Johnson.”

http://www.policymic.com/articles/16114/gary-johnson-spoiler-latest-presidential-polls-show-a-third-party-disaster-in-the-works-for-mitt-romney

North Carolina

“North Carolina's population has nearly doubled since 1970, fueled by an economic expansion that brought an influx of Midwesterners, Northeasterners and nonwhites and turning the state from a Republican presidential stronghold into a battleground.”

http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/nc-a-mix-of-old-and-new-in-southern-swing-state-1.4079654

The Romney bounce

“The evidence that Mr. Romney’s bounce is receding some is only modestly strong — as opposed to the evidence that he got a significant bounce in the first place, which is very strong.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/oct-8-a-great-poll-for-romney-in-perspective/  

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             253               -11

Romney           190               -  2

Tossups            95                +13

There are 14 online Electoral College opinion maps which toss out the tossups and assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls.  The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           314                 -19

Romney         223                 +19

Tossups           0

 

The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 68% probability of winning and Romney with a 32% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 29 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

The presidential race tightens

“In a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama’s column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

More on third party candidates

“Johnson, the former New Mexico governor, has qualified for the ballot in 48 states. Goode, a conservative ex-congressman from Virginia, is on ballots in about 25 states. Their standing matters most in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia -- states Obama captured four years ago and that Romney has worked feverishly to convert.”

http://www.newsday.com/news/tiny-presence-unknown-impact-for-3rd-parties-1.4079545