Saturday, August 18, 2012

Unemployment rate rises in battleground states

Unemployment rates rose in nine states that are considered battlegrounds in the presidential election. That trend, if it continued, could pose a threat to President Barack Obama's re-election bid in less than three months.”

Thursday, August 16, 2012

“Unlikely” registered voters support Obama over Romney

“ … people who are eligible to vote but aren't likely to do so … back Obama’s re-election over Republican Mitt Romney by more than 2-1..”

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Two new surveys show a tight race for the important swing state of Ohio, with one showing a razor-thin Obama lead and the other finding a tie in the state.”

List of Electoral College maps (in no particular order) 
We are calculating our weekly average (usually posted Monday) of electoral college vote opinions from the following 22 online maps:

Monday, August 13, 2012

Electoral College opinion map update

The average of 22 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             255   +6

Romney           196    -1

Tossups             87     -5

The winning candidate now has 85 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

6% to 8% undecided voters
“ … Internal and public polls consistently show far fewer undecided voters than four years ago …”

Obama’s difficulty in challenging the Ryan budget

A bigger challenge for Democrats may be how to make these arguments believable to true swing voters. Last month, The New York Times reported on a set of focus groups conducted in late 2011 by the pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA, in which participants were informed that "Romney supported the Ryan budget plan — and thus championed 'ending Medicare as we know it' — while also advocating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." According to the Times report, the attacks had little impact. The participants "simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing."

Our forecast still has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in Iowa, although his probability of winning the state declined to 63 percent from 67 percent on the new survey. Part of the reason is that, in the absence of a sufficient amount of polling, the model weighs what we call “state fundamentals” fairly heavily.”