Friday, September 7, 2012

Impact of voter ID laws
“In a very close race, voter ID measures could affect the outcome. In the extreme scenario, it could flip the Presidential election.”

Impact of Citizen’s United
The largest effect of the Citizens United ruling is probably not the Presidential race, which is sufficiently well-funded for messages to get out on both sides. And, for the moment, that race looks hard to flip.”

I will be out of town until Tuesday, September 11, at which time the electoral college update will be published.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Swing state Catholics
Catholics, who have a presence on both national tickets for the first time, are second behind evangelical Protestants among the nation’s dominant religious groups. They fan out across demographics, composing a quarter of the adult population, according to the Census Bureau. Catholics don’t vote monolithically, but they could sway outcomes in several swing states.”

Romney appears to have conceded Pennsylvania and Michigan (for now)

“Mitt Romney's allies have pulled their advertising from Pennsylvania and Michigan while redoubling efforts in other battleground states. The move indicates that at least for now, efforts by outside groups to help Romney compete in more states have stalled.
There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind currently airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to The Associated Press. While the Romney campaign has spent almost no money on advertising in either state, conservative groups have spent $20 million on ads for him in Pennsylvania and have spent $8 million on ads in Michigan.”


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

An electoral college shortcut from a prediction markets guru
If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states. Conversely, if Obama can carry just one of those states, he will likely win the election.”

Virginia may now be a three candidate race
It is unclear how big an effect Goode’s presence on the Virginia ballot would have. In 2008, President Obama became the first Democrat in more than 40 years to win the state, and head-to-head polls this time around have shown Romney and Obama close to tied. Most surveys of the contest have not included any third-party candidates, but Public Policy Polling — which uses automated phone calls rather than live interviews — released Virginia polls in May and July with Goode getting 5 and 9 percent, respectively.”

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 28 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             236   

Romney           194

Tossups            108

Six maps have been recently added to the average:  Politico, USA Today, Reuters, Five Thirty Eight, Frontloading HQ and Fox News.

There are five online electoral college odds makers (538, Predictwise, Betfair, Intrade and Smarkets), which currently show on average Obama with a 65% probability of winning and Romney with a 35% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 63 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.


Monday, September 3, 2012

Over $1 billion of swing state ads are coming
“A word of warning to swing-state voters who have suffered through an onslaught of attack ads this summer: The worst is yet to come.”

The critical swing counties of Florida
“ … Florida - and specifically its five swing counties: Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas, Seminole and Volusia - was the state that determined the president in all of the last 3 elections: set between the Republican-dominated North Florida and the more Democratic southern counties, these suburban communities of middle-class voters are known for their shifting allegiances. In 2008, Obama took four of the five counties to capture Florida. George W. Bush won three of the counties, and the state, in 2004. In 2000, Volusia’s vote count was disputed by Vice President Al Gore. Gore won the county yet lost Florida by 537 votes, giving Bush his first term as president.”

Opinion map averages will be published tomorrow




Sunday, September 2, 2012

Battleground state update
President Obama polled strong in a number of key swing states. Obama currently leads in nine out of the ten swing states listed below. Assuming Obama is able to keep those leads, he will certainly win re-election in November. However, Romney will probably see a small RNC bump in the polls in the coming week, and Romney only needs to gain a few percentage points in many states to be competitive once again.”

Who are the persuadable voters?

“One in four American voters could be persuaded to change their intended vote before election day, according to a new poll by ABC News carried out by the Langer Associates.”