Saturday, September 15, 2012

What does the size of Romney’s lead in Montana say?
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Montana shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by five points, 50% to 45%.”

Libertarian candidate now on Pennsylvania ballot
“Pennsylvania is no longer a state that Republicans are suggesting is in play in a real way, but ... Johnson on the ballot could end up ... helping President Obama.  It also puts Johnson on the ballot in 47 states so far, which could matter in ones that are tight.”

Obama ahead in Pennsylvania, excluding Libertarian votes
A Philadelphia Inquirer poll released Saturday has President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 39 percent.”


Friday, September 14, 2012

Obama leads in Florida, Ohio and Virginia
“ … President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of each of these three states” … beyond the margin of error.

Suburbs are key to victory in Colorado

The road to victory in many of the most competitive states in this year’s presidential election winds through the strip malls, traffic jams, limping economies and slumped housing markets of the suburbs.”


Libertarian candidate may affect vote in swing states

“Three percent of likely voters responded that they would vote for Johnson, the Libertarian Party's candidate for president, in November. That number is slightly higher among registered voters, with 4% identifying with the former governor of New Mexico.”

Thursday, September 13, 2012

North Carolina is still leaning Romney
Romney pollster Neil Newhouse crowed in a Monday memo that the Obama campaign “is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal.” He cited the campaign’s television buy in the state “to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35 percent compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.”


Super Pacs may help third-party candidates in swing states
Here's an unintended consequence of the Supreme Court ruling allowing unlimited expenditures by outside groups. Super PACs backing third-party candidates could impact the presidential race in November.”

Obama makes huge ad buy in Florida
This huge buy reflects the Obama campaign's increasing confidence of being able to win Florida, which would potentially deliver a knockout blow to Romney in the race to 270 electoral votes. According to NBC's electoral map, if Obama wins Florida, he would need to win just one other toss-up state to reach or surpass the 270 number.”

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

GOP ad dollars shifted from Pennsylvania and Michigan to Wisconsin
The former Massachusetts governor and his allies have shifted television advertising dollars to reflect the state of play following the two parties’ nominating conventions.”

Wisconsin is now in play as a battleground
“President Obama’s re-election campaign on Tuesday added Wisconsin to its list of targeted states. The campaign’s first television advertisements there are set to begin on Thursday, a sign that the state is more competitive than the Obama campaign had once expected.”

Monday, September 10, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 29 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             239         

Romney           193    

Tossups            106    

One map have been added to the average:

There are five online electoral college odds makers (538, Predictwise, Betfair, Intrade and Smarkets), which currently show on average Obama with a 68% probability of winning and Romney with a 32% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 57 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.