Saturday, October 6, 2012

Romney and Colorado

"The Obama campaign has outspent Romney 3-to-1 in Colorado, and the Obama PACs have outspent the Romney PACs 2-to-1. Based on that, it's kind of surprising to me that Obama doesn't have a bigger lead," said Katy Atkinson, a Denver-based Republican strategist. "Obama has done plenty of advertising. But he hasn't closed the sale."

Friday, October 5, 2012

Romney’s Ralph Nader?

“We’ve had Johnson at between 2 and 4 percent in various states,” Kaplan said. “In a close election that can make all the difference. Remember [Ralph] Nader in Florida in 2000.”

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Race tightens in Florida and Virginia
Mitt Romney has closed in on President Barack Obama in the battleground states of Florida and Virginia, new polling shows, but a substantial gap with the president in Ohio leaves the Republican with a daunting path to victory in the Electoral College.”

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

High tech election predictions

Wes Colley:
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.”

Nate Silver:
If you take the average between the FiveThirtyEight model and the consensus betting lines, you’d get about a two-in-three chance of Mr. Obama winning another term.

Sam Wang:
 Obama appears to be significantly overperforming in critical battlegrounds compared with the rest of the country.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Republicans end swing state voter registration

The Republican National Committee ended efforts to sign up new voters before the deadline in key states for the presidential race because of questions raised over registration applications tied to the party.
The five states have registration deadlines from Oct. 6 to Oct. 15. Stopping efforts before then could hurt Republican nominee Mitt Romney in his bid to unseat Democratic PresidentBarack Obama, said Lance deHaven-Smith, a Florida State University political science professor in Tallahassee.”

Monday, October 1, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update
The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps (with tossups) is currently:

Obama             264         
Romney           192

Tossups            82

Obama’s average moved from 232 on July 1 to 255 on August 13, then dropped to 235 on August 27 and has moved up to the current average of 264, the highest average for Obama during the course of the campaign.  Romney’s average has fluctuated between 197 and 192 during this same period.
All of the “right wing” maps (Fox News, Rassmussen, Townhall,, Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal) assign Obama between 237 and 328 votes and Romney between 191 and 203 votes.

There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps which toss out the tossups and assign all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error in the polls. 

The current average (without tossups) is:

Obama           333
Romney         205

Tossups           0

The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 79% probability of winning and Romney with a 21% probability of winning.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Republican voter registration fraud in swing states
“What first appeared to be an isolated problem in one Florida county has now spread statewide, with election officials in nine counties informing prosecutors or state election officials about questionable voter registration forms filled out on behalf of the Republican Party of Florida.

The Republican Party of Florida has paid Strategic Allied Consulting more than $1.3 million, and the Republican National Committee used the group for work in Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia.”

Nate Silver on polling and the current state of the race

“Obama has basically always been ahead in the most important swing states or in enough swing states to win the electoral college. There have been moments when national polls have been almost tied, but there’s been almost no point this year at which you could say that Romney’s ahead in Ohio or Pennsylvania or Virginia. And now we’re seeing the national polls starting to match the state polls more.”