Friday, September 21, 2012

Democratic voter enthusiasm increasing in swing states
Democratic enthusiasm for this year’s presidential election has skyrocketed, with almost three-quarters of swing-state Democrats saying they are very excited to vote, according to a poll released Thursday.”

Majority of independents support a government safety net
“In June, Pew found that 59 percent of independents believe that the government “should help those who cannot help themselves.” Moreover, 58 percent believe that the government should guarantee minimal food and shelter. Those views have weakened slightly over the past few years, but they’re still held more strongly by independents than self-identified Republicans, whose support of the safety net has plummeted … “

Some swing state voters could change their minds
More than one-fifth of swing-state voters could change their mind before the election, according to a USA Today/Gallup Poll on Wednesday showing President Barack Obama with a slim lead over GOP nominee Mitt Romney.”

I will be out of town until Wednesday, September 26, at which time the weekly electoral college opinion map update will be published.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Last week marked Wisconsin’s move into full battleground status with candidate visits and television buys.”

Obama leading in swing state polls that include cell phone users
“Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio, and a 68 percent chance to win Florida … .  Overall, this version of the model gives Mr. Obama an 83 percent chance of winning the Electoral College … “

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Undecided voter neuroscience
“Despite your likely incredulity that they even exist, undecided voters may be smarter than you think. They’re not indifferent or unable to make clear comparisons between the candidates. They may be more willing than others to take their time. It is even possible that they have essentially already made a choice, but are unaware of the fact.”


Digging deeper into Electoral College probabilities
“As of Monday, the forecast gave Mr. Obama a 76.1 percent chance of winning the popular vote, but a 74.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. In other words, as of right now, Mr. Obama is more likely to lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote than the other way around.”


Monday, September 17, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update
The average of 29 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             245         
Romney           196    

Tossups            97    

The average of five online Electoral College odds makers currently show Obama with a 74% probability of winning and Romney with a 26% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 50 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

List of Electoral College maps
We are calculating our weekly average (usually posted Monday) of electoral college vote opinions from the following 29 online maps (listed in no particular order):

Washington Post
New York Times Political Desk
Real Clear Politics
Huffington Post
Cook Political Report
NBC News
Rothenberg Political Report
Larry Sabato
Wall Street Journal
Rasmussen Report
Los Angles Times
Princeton Election Consortium
Talking Points Memo
Poll Headlines
Washington Times
Associated Press
USA Today
Five Thirty Eight
Frontloading HQ
Fox News

List of Electoral College oddsmakers
We are calculating our weekly average of electoral college probability of winning from the following 6 oddsmakers:

Five Thirty Eight Nowcast
Iowa Electronic Markets