Saturday, September 1, 2012

Electoral College analysis

Let’s begin with the Electoral College foundation on which each candidate will build. A very conservative assessment gives Obama a base of 201 electoral votes, and Romney 181. These numbers exclude one state—Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes—that most observers are putting in Obama’s column, and one state—Missouri (10)—that is likely to go for Romney. Factoring in these probable outcomes, Obama’s base rises to 221 electoral votes, Romney’s to 191.

The next tier contains three states that Romney must win and two more that Obama must hold. The Romney 3 are Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Ohio (18), in each of which Obama’s share of the popular vote in 2008 was well below his national share. No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, and Romney is unlikely to be the first. There’s no road to 270 electoral votes for the Republican ticket that doesn’t run through Florida. And losing North Carolina, which Obama won by only 0.3 percent, would force Romney to flip a major Midwestern state where Obama won by a much greater margin.

Let’s look more closely at Ohio. During the past five presidential elections, the Democratic candidate’s share of the state’s vote has trailed his national share by an average of 1.3 percentage points. 2008 was no exception: Obama received 52.9 percent of the national vote, versus only 51.4 percent in Ohio. But so far, 2012 looks different: the six most recent Ohio surveys give Obama an average of 47.2 percent of the vote—0.7 points more than his national share. Relative to the historical benchmark, then, Obama is outperforming in Ohio by two percentage points—enough to win the state even if the national vote is very closely divided.

Memo to the Romney campaign: whatever you’re doing in Ohio isn’t working. And if you don’t turn it around, your only chance is to make history in the upper Midwest.

This is where things get interesting. The Obama 2 are Wisconsin (10 EVs), which Obama won by 14 points in 2008, and Michigan (16 EVs), where he prevailed by more than 16. Polling this year has long indicated much closer races in these states, and the selection of Paul Ryan seems to have contributed to the statistical ties shown in the most recent surveys. Winning either of these states would be a game-changer, broadening Romney’s options for reaching 270 electoral votes and narrowing Obama’s.”

Friday, August 31, 2012

Ohio and Nevada
“ … although there was one, in Ohio, that had encouraging news for Barack Obama, and another, in Nevada, that was slightly favorable for Mitt Romney.”

Poll:  Romney leading among independents nationwide
“ … the CBS News poll shows independent voters breaking 41 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama. Most of the other recent polls are showing Romney typically leading by 10 percent about independents, typically showing results in the range of 43-45 percent Romney to 33-35 percent for Obama.”


Thursday, August 30, 2012

Persuadable voters
Two months out from Election Day, nearly a quarter of all registered voters are either undecided about the presidential race or iffy in their support for a candidate, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows.”

Economic model predicts Romney victory

The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome.”

Lichtman’s 13 keys predicts Obama victory
President Barack Obama's reelection in 2012 is nearly guaranteed … Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day.”

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Michigan still leans Obama

“Our forecast model tends to side with the polls showing Mr. Obama in a reasonably good position in Michigan. It’s extremely doubtful that he’s ahead by double-digits there — and almost certainly not by 14 points — but the forecast projects a six- or seven-point victory for Mr. Obama in Michigan on Nov. 6.”


Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Florida is crucial for Romney, but not for Obama
“For Mitt Romney and the Republicans, Florida is a must-win, the indispensable make-or-break prize they must capture on Election Day to regain the White House.

For President Barack Obama, Florida is the potential clincher, the knock-out punch, the big boost he may not need in terms of Electoral College votes but would love to have to ease his path to a second term and strengthen his mandate to govern.”,0,1581015.story

Romney’s path to 270 runs through Florida
"Every poll that's looked at Florida in recent weeks — at the core of them, they're all within the margins," Hughes said. "It's a dogfight."

CNN poll is bad news for Romney
If Republicans want to win big, they need to maintain that edge among seniors, both in Florida and nationally. This latest CNN poll shows that they are falling short of their 2010 mark, and are barely overperforming their 2008 numbers when Obama won the state by three points. Throw in demographic shift (older anti-Obama voters have died off, younger pro-Obama voters are replacing them, and the share of the white vote is decreasing), and it's not enough to close the gap to Obama.”

Monday, August 27, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 22 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             235    -8

Romney           196    unchanged

Tossups            107    +8

Based on the movement of the Electoral College opinion map averages, it appears that Romney has stopped what looked to be breakout momentum of the Obama campaign in early August. It was imperative for the Romney campaign to accomplish that first step in order to get back in the race. (On August 13, the average number of votes assigned to Obama was 255, 20 of which have now moved to the tossup category.) If Romney makes significant progress during the conventions and the debates of turning tossups red, he could very well peak at the right time to get to 270 on November 6.

The winning candidate now has 71 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Poll:  Obama still leading in Pennsylvania
“Obama holds a 51 to 42 percent lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney among the state’s voters, according to a new Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll released Saturday.”

With this most recent poll, Obama has now led in 20 of the 21 public polls conducted in Pennsylvania this year -- and Romney has been mired in the low 40s -- which suggests the swing state designation this year might be overstated.  Voters appear to be reverting to form in a state hasn’t voted Republican at the presidential level since 1988.”


Seven states will determine election

On the eve of their national party conventions, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a close race to amass the requisite 270 Electoral College votes for victory. And the contest is exactly where it was at the start of the long, volatile summer: focused on seven states that are up for grabs.
Neither candidate has a significant advantage in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, which offer a combined 85 electoral votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of public and private polls, spending on television advertising and numerous interviews with Republican and Democratic strategists in battleground states.

The analysis, which also took into account the strength of a candidate's on-the-ground organization and travel schedules, found that if the election were held today, Obama would have 19 states and the District of Columbia, offering 247 votes, solidly in his column or leaning his way, while Republican Romney would have 24 states with 206 votes.”