Saturday, August 4, 2012

More on Voter ID laws
“ … although I do think these laws will have some detrimental effect on Democratic turnout, it is unlikely to be as large as some Democrats fear or as some news media reports imply — and they can also serve as a rallying point for the party bases. So although the direct effects of these laws are likely negative for Democrats, it wouldn’t take that much in terms of increased base voter engagement — and increased voter conscientiousness about their registration status — to mitigate them.”

Has Romney lost Iowa?

“On the question of extending the wind production tax credit -- an important issue for Iowans because of the roughly 7,000 jobs tied to the state's wind-energy industry -- the two candidates have made their positions perfectly (and diametrically) clear: Obama supports it and Romney does not. …
A recent poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican firm, spelled out just how perilous a position Romney is taking. "An overwhelming majority of Iowa voters would be less likely to support an anti-wind candidate for office," according to the POS survey, which later notes: "Eighty five percent (85%) of Iowans believe that wind energy has been good for the state's economy, and 83 percent believe that it has helped bring new jobs to the state."

Over $300 million of conservative super-Pac ads planned for swing states

 A conservative group partially funded by the billionaire Koch brothers is spending approximately $24 million over the next month in swing-state advertisements … In addition to the Americans for Prosperity buy, the Romney-backing Restore our Future super-PAC is expected to spend aggressively, while outside groups led by former Bush adviser Karl Rove have pledged to spend some $300 million throughout the cycle.”

Obama plan $77 million in swing state ads
The reservation was for eight battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Ohio alone amounts to nearly $20 million of the reservation.”

Friday, August 3, 2012

Big Obama advantage among Pennsylvania and Ohio women
Traditionally, Democrats do better among women than Republicans, but the gender gap in this poll was remarkable: more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania.”

Voter ID laws boost Romney’s chances in the swing states

The swing states that have implemented voter ID laws are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Florida and Ohio put laws into effect that curb early voting.”

Turnout battle swing states
Turnout-battle swing states …  are those like North Carolina with relatively evenly-matched electoral coalitions but few persuadable voters in the middle. Pennsylvania is a classic example: can Democrats turn out enough voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to overcome the conservative central portion of the state? It’s pretty much the same question in Pennsylvania every cycle and we often get about the same answer. Virginia, whose demographics are similar to North Carolina, is likewise more of a turnout-battle state. That is not to say there are no swing voters there — Virginia has some in its northern suburbs, for instance — but there just aren’t as many as a proportion of the electorate as somewhere like New Hampshire.”

Nate Silver’s analysis of Pew poll shows national race is unchanged

“From the forecast model’s standpoint, therefore, the Pew poll is treated as a four-point lead for Mr. Obama after making these adjustments.  A four-point lead for Mr. Obama is a decent enough number for him, but nothing that should drastically change our understanding of the race.”

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Romney going for broke

“In this election, the number of genuine, middle-of-the-road swing voters is very small. For both candidates, this puts a premium not only on high turnout among party base groups but also on very large victory margins within them. McInturff thinks we may be moving from an electoral model based on swing or undecided voters to a world of what he calls “committed versus elastic” voter groups.”

Undecided voters
“As coveted as they are, truly undecided voters … are increasingly rare, said David J. Dent, a professor at New York University who has studied the 272 counties in the United States that voted for Bush twice and then went Democratic, switching to Obama in 2008. It is here that voters are most conflicted. “People do not feel like [Obama] has lived up to those very high expectations,” Dent said. “But, on the other hand . . . a lot of people feel that Romney has not provided a strong-enough alternative.”

Romney reduces ad spending in Pennsylvania
As you can see, people have mostly made up their minds by this point, and there isn’t a whole lot more that spending on persuasion can do, which is probably why Mitt’s been pulling back ad spending.

PA is a turnout battle state. There aren’t a whole lot of swing voters, rather the party bases are pretty evenly matched and the swing state status is more about who actually shows up to vote. The Romney campaign’s best hope is that the voter ID law is upheld, which would basically do all the work for them, suppressing Democratic turnout in the big population centers, and leaving Romney to focus on turning out Republican voters in the T and Republican-leaning suburbs.”

More on Pennsylvania

“ … even if Mr. Romney’s campaign has reason to believe that Pennsylvania is not quite at the electoral tipping point, that does not necessarily mean that they should pull out of it. Expending some resources there would force Mr. Obama’s campaign to do the same. The state is certainly close enough — and it has been important enough historically — that neither campaign can really afford to call the other’s bluff.”

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

New poll shows Obama with edge in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida
“Most paths to victory that the campaigns are pursuing include winning at least two of the states.
While independent voters break strongly for Mr. Obama in Pennsylvania, a state that Mr. Romney has been trying to make more competitive, they are closely split in Florida and Ohio. Of the coalition that Mr. Obama built to win the White House, independent voters remain a hurdle, with a little more than half in Florida and Ohio saying they disapprove of his job performance.”

Swing states inundated with campaign ads

“Barack Obama rode to victory in 2008 on a record wave of fundraising that allowed him to drown his opponent in advertising and rack up victories far into Republican territory.
But with just 100 days until the 2012 election, President Obama faces a far more difficult financial task in his bid for reelection — battling a well-funded challenger in a narrow band of swing states, which will be inundated with attack ads and campaign visits.”

Google searches for search term “Bain Capital”
“High interest in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina.”

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Romney expected to reduce Obama’s share of the Jewish vote
Even though Republicans haven’t cracked 25 percent of the Jewish vote since 1988, GOP backers of Mitt Romney …  are mounting what likely will be the most aggressive effort yet in dollars and cents to woo one of Ohio and Florida’s most pivotal constituencies.”

Romney hopes Poland visit will help him with Polish-Americans and Catholics
“The states that hold the largest communities of Polish-American voters overlap significantly with this year's swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio all are home to numerous voters who trace their heritage to Poland … “
“ … this is an election where nibbling at the margins can help, especially after Obama may have alienated some Catholics with an executive order that requires religiously-affiliated organizations to provide their employees with insurance plans that include birth control.”

Monday, July 30, 2012

Electoral College vote update

The average of 23 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:
Obama             240

Romney           196

Tossups            102

Four additonal maps have been added to calculate the average -- Princeton Election Consortium, Talking Points Memo, Poll Headlines and Washington Times.

The winning candidate now has 99 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Will positive or negative Olympic ads be most effective?

“The tale of the Olympics ad tape so far: President Obama is going big and positive, the GOP is sticking with smaller, negative attacks.”

Romney’s greatest challenge to win the swing states
"The president has had the worst three months of any incumbent, due to the economy, since George HW Bush in 1992, and yet Romney has lost traction among key demographic groups in the vital swing states. He has got to get this behind him or he's going to face summer definition à la [Bob] Dole and [John] Kerry."
Romney’s path to victory?
“… the path to 270 flows from the national horserace. For months now, Romney has been trailing Obama by between one and three points in national polling averages. That’s not a huge amount, obviously, but it’s significant, and it helps explain why Obama seems to be outperforming Romney in swing states. But if the national race were to shift a few point in Romney’s direction so that it’s dead even, new and potentially surprising Electoral College possibilities would present themselves.”

Special Speculatron Electoral College opinion

"And so we've once again come to the part where your Speculatronners make their trademarked Electoral College projection, which is -- as always -- based on a mix of careful poll study, an analysis of prevailing economic trends, candidates "Klout" scores, and whatever we learned picking through the trash of "soccer moms."
Obviously, this week's big story is Mitt Romney's headlong plunge into Gaffetown during his trip to England. We lean heavily in the direction that eventually, it will not prove to be much of a game-changer. Of course, we're here to try to capture the current state of the race, based upon our best cogitations, so in the immediate sense, Romney's stumbles do tend to glare brightly. Even so, a question that's tough to answer is this: do Romney's mistakes necessarily cause esteem to accrue in Obama's column?
It's a tough matter to divine with any certainty, but here's our prediction. Mitt Romney is not going to win any of the United Kingdom's electoral votes. (Probably!)"