Republicans losing support of seniors over Ryan Medicare proposal?

“Even before Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan to the ticket, our Battleground polling results indicated an erosion of support for Republicans, largely based on Paul Ryan’s plans for Medicare and entitlements. The advantage Republicans held among seniors in 2010 has been completely decimated. Across these Republican districts, incumbents now hold just a two-point lead with voters over age 64—a group Republicans won by 18 points in 2010.

Not surprisingly, the leading factor in this shift away from the GOP is Paul Ryan’s war on Medicare. By a decisive six-point margin, voters in these districts now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to Medicare. Among voters in the 27 most competitive Republican battleground seats, Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage on Medicare.”

http://www.nationalmemo.com/carville-greenberg/early-warning-ryan-medicare-plan-imperils-battleground-republicans/

 

Independents can tip a competitive election

 “Independents who describe their ideology as moderate—arguably, the bull’s-eye at the dead center of the electorate—may be a group especially worth watching. Reagan carried them by roughly 20-point margins in his two races. They broke narrowly for George H.W. Bush in 1988 and more substantially for Clinton in his two victories. George W. Bush lost moderate independents by just 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively, in his two races, but they tilted sharply to Obama, providing him an emphatic 16-point edge over McCain.This will likely be one of many groups among which Romney must meet or exceed the second Bush’s performance to overcome Obama—and the ongoing demographic changes that have made the road to the White House even slightly steeper for Republicans than it was in 2008.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-conventions/the-hidden-history-of-the-american-electorate-20120823

 

Daily Kos electoral college analysis

“So [what] do this week's numbers tell us? That the only place the Romney ticket got a legitimate Ryan bounce was in his home state of Wisconsin.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/23/1123491/-Battleground-snapshot-The-race-in-the-Electoral-College-isn-t-tightening

Poll:  Obama ahead in battleground states but even with swing voters

 “In a smaller sample of voters living in 12 key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent.

That’s a narrower edge in these battlegrounds than the eight-point lead the president enjoyed in the June and July NBC/WSJ polls.

And the two presidential candidates are essentially even when it comes to the swing groups of suburban voters, Midwest residents and political independents.”

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/21/13399788-nbcwsj-poll-heading-into-conventions-obama-has-four-point-lead
 

Wisconsin race tightening

“The race for president in Wisconsin has narrowed, with 49 percent supporting Barack Obama and 46 percent Mitt Romney, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Marquette Law School.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/wisconsin-presidential-poll_n_1822473.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

Pennsylvania still leaning blue

“President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the lean-blue state with 49 percent support to Romney's 40 percent among likely voters, according to a The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll conducted this week.  In other recent statewide polls Obama's lead has ranged from 12 points to six points, but he's consistently been ahead.”

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-morning-callmuhlenberg-poll-paul-ryan-doesnt-move-race-in-pennsylvania-20120823,0,129992.story

New Hampshire is still a swing state

“Voter surveys here show New Hampshire is up for grabs. Obama won the state in 2008 with 53.4 percent to John McCain’s 44.8 percent. Looking toward November, the University of New Hampshire’s bimonthly Granite State Poll has Obama ahead, but his lead has been steadily declining. In February, he was 10 points ahead; in April, 9; in June, 4; and on August 12 he led by 3 points. Obama still has an edge, but the trend line is troubling to his campaign.”

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/edsall-do-you-trust-politicians/?ref=opinion

Poll:  Obama still leads in Virginia

“President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points in Virginia according to a poll released Tuesday by the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, which shows the president ahead 50 percent to 45 percent.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/obama-virginia-poll_n_1819747.html

Poll:  Obama by a hair in Nevada

“President Barack Obama edges out GOP opponent Mitt Romney 47 percent to 45 percent in a new Nevada poll … “

http://www.lvrj.com/news/poll-obama-romney-neck-and-neck-167006295.html

Romney improving in swing states polls

“ … Mr. Romney has made up some ground in the swing states. Apart from his selection of Mr. Ryan, there are other things going on in the campaign. For example, Mr. Romney’s advertising advantage in swing states could be starting to pay dividends.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/aug-21-romney-showing-improved-results-in-swing-state-polls/

Poll:  Swing state voters not better off

“A majority of voters in key 2012 election swing states say they are not better off than they were four years ago; 40% say they are better off. Swing-state voters' assessments of their situation compared with 2008 have varied little since last fall.”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156776/swing-state-voters-say-no-better-off-2008.aspx

Florida is still a tossup

“the consensus of polls in Florida, which have been a bit variable but have pointed toward a race that is roughly tied.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 22 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             243    -12

Romney           196    unchanged

Tossups             99    +12

The gains for Obama in the race since three weeks ago were more than erased last week.  And although the Romney average remained unchanged, Talking Points Memo assigns him 220 votes, the first time any map has given Romney over 206 votes since these maps started to be published in 2011.

The winning candidate now has 78 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.

Undecided voters

“These undecided voters, called "the persuadables" by the campaigns, represent about 6 percent of the electorate, according to recent polls. About 19 percent of voters said there was a chance they could change their minds, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll last month. That's compared with about 10 percent undecided and 25 percent who could still have changed at this point in 2008.”

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-08-18/obama-romney-compete-for-undecideds-stoke-base

Wisconsin

Poll:  “Obama led among registered voters, 49-45 percent. Among all voters, he was up 6.”

http://blogs.mcclatchydc.com/washington/2012/08/romneyryan-ticket-trails-in-ryans-wisconsin.html#storylink=cpy