Saturday, September 29, 2012

Democratic voter enthusiasm is surging

President Obama has surged ahead of Mitt Romney nationally and in a slew of important swing states since the Democratic National Convention. His current 4 point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics poll average is his biggest since depths of the Republican primary this April.

Obama’s entire bounce seems to be coming entirely from a surge in Democratic enthusiasm. Gallup, who currently shows a six point Obama lead, reports: “Voter enthusiasm in [swing] states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats’ level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.”

Friday, September 28, 2012

Polling samples and party ID

“ … don’t fall for the cry of biased or unweighted Party ID samples. There’s a reason Party ID samples have skewed Democratic of late. Pretending otherwise is not scientific. It’s just a form of denial that will inevitably lead to disappointment.”

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Working class voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan
“In yielding Pennsylvania to President Obama, Romney has raised the stakes in Ohio and Florida, almost certainly making both states must win contests if he is to reach 270 Electoral College votes. Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead by a 1.9 point average in the eight most recent Florida polls and by an average of 4.1 percent in the seven most recent Ohio polls.”

Breaking down the swing state polls

“A new set of polls conducted by Quinnipiac for the New York Times and CBS News paint a grim picture for Mitt Romney, who faces daunting gaps in three big states.”

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Now advantage Obama re Medicare issues
“Voters in 12 key election swing states trust President Barack Obama over challenger Mitt Romney to address issues facing the Medicare system, 50% to 44%.”

Early voting is critical in swing states
With early voting kicking off Thursday in the critical swing state of Iowa, and with more swing states following close behind, including Ohio next Tuesday, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will be banking real votes long before the frenetic final days of the campaign.”

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 29 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:

Obama             259        +14

Romney           194          - 2

Tossups            85           -11

The average of four online electoral college odds makers currently show Obama with a 79% probability of winning and Romney with a 21% probability of winning.

The winning candidate now has 42 days left in the campaign to capture 270 electoral votes.