Peanut Gallery Political
Electoral College vote analysis during the 2012 Presidential Election campaign, with commentary on tossup, swing or battleground states and on independent, swing, moderate, centrist and undecided voters.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Final
Electoral College opinion map update
The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps
(with tossups) is currently:
Obama 242
Romney 200
Tossups 96
There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps which
toss out the tossups and assign all electoral votes to either Obama or
Romney. The current average (without
tossups) is:
Obama 301
Romney 237
Tossups 0
Obama
leading in straw poll at Harry’s Bar
“President Barack Obama is
leading against challenger Mitt Romney in a straw poll at Harry’s Bar, an
iconic Paris watering hole which has held a vote ahead of U.S. elections since
1924 and only got the results wrong twice.”
This
is the final blog posting. Thanks for
coming by during these last 26 weeks.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Romney
could still win
“Consider these
past polling errors in the context of the 2 to 3 percentage points or less that
separate Obama and Romney in many battleground states. It would take a
consistent overstatement of Obama's margins -- just 2 to 3 points -- in the battlegrounds
to create a scenario in which Romney wins despite the current polling numbers.
History says an overstatement of that magnitude is rare but within the realm of
possibility.In a separate article, Stanford political scientist Simon Jackman explains in detail how he has used past polling errors to convert the Pollster tracking model's probability that a candidate leads in the polls to a probability that he will win the election.
The most recent run of the model, as of this writing, confirms the obvious: The probability of an Obama lead in the key battleground states is very high, given that virtually all polling in these states shows him ahead. However, the potential for a rare "black swan" polling failure as big as the national polls of 1980 or 1992 is still real, given past experience -- amounting to a roughly 1-in-3 chance that such an error would affect the outcome of states like Ohio and Iowa.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/presidential-polls_n_2056377.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
“President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to
win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His
chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure
since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
“. . .
there's little evidence to say that undecideds are breaking in a big
way. Note that they are also not "independents," which are a
different beast. Most independents have a distinct preference for a candidate,
but not a party. Charles Franklin has
analyzed undecideds and finds that they break nearly equally.
http://election.princeton.edu/where-are-undecideds-falling-2nov2012.php
Virgil Goode in
Virginia
“In the latest Fox News poll in Virginia, Mr.
Goode is backed by 1 percent of likely voters.”
“According to a Gravis Marketing Ohio poll, Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson is
running with 10.6% in the Buckeye State. With Barack Obama running with 44.5%
and Mitt Romney running with 37.8%, it essentially takes Romney out of the race
there”
http://www.policymic.com/articles/15532/presidential-polls-2012-gary-johnson-gains-ground-in-ohio-chipping-away-at-romneySaturday, November 3, 2012
Obama
leads Romney on Medicare issue
“President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney on the
question of who would better handle Medicare in the crucial swing states of
Florida, Ohio and Virginia, recent polls of likely voters in all three states
found. But as Election Day nears Mr. Romney has narrowed the gap in Florida and
Virginia.”
Friday, November 2, 2012
Working
class voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan
“In yielding Pennsylvania to President Obama, Romney has
raised the stakes in Ohio and Florida, almost certainly making both states must
win contests if he is to reach 270 Electoral College votes. Real Clear Politics
has Obama ahead by a 1.9 point average in the eight
most recent Florida polls and by an average of 4.1 percent in the
seven most recent Ohio polls.”
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/whats-wrong-with-pennsylvania/
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Breaking
down the swing state polls
“A new set of polls
conducted by Quinnipiac for the New York Times and CBS News paint a grim
picture for Mitt Romney, who faces daunting gaps in three big states.”
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Romney
trying to put three states in play
“Mitt Romney is suddenly plunging into traditionally
Democratic-leaning Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and his GOP allies are trying to
put Michigan into play. It's forcing President Barack Obama to defend his own
turf - he's pouring money into television ads in the states and dispatching top
backers - in the campaign's final week.”
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
The
Polls before Sandy
“The effects of Hurricane Sandy on next Tuesday’s election are hard to predict. But the storm is likely to have an impact on the volume of polling in the meantime.”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/oct-29-polling-slows-as-storm-wreaks-havoc/
Monday, October 29, 2012
Electoral
College opinion map weekly update
The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps
(with tossups) is currently:
Obama 237
Romney 200
Tossups
101
Last week, the averages were Obama 239, Romney 199 and
Tossups 100.
Obama 295
Romney 243
Tossups 0
Last week, the averages were Obama 287, Romney 251 and
Tossups 0.
The average of three online Electoral College odds makers
(Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 65%
probability of winning and Romney with a 35% probability of winning, up 1 for Obama and down 1 for Romney from last week.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Female
swing voters
“Whether or not the term “waitress moms”
endures, it defines a distinct demographic: blue-collar white women who did not
attend college. And they are getting a lot of attention from both campaigns as
the presidential race barrels toward its conclusion because even at this late
date, pollsters say, many waitress moms have not settled on a candidate. They
feel no loyalty to one party or the other, though they tend to side with
Republicans.
“Blue-collar women are most
likely to be the remaining movable part of the electorate, which is precisely
why both campaigns are going at them as hard as they are,” said Geoff Garin, a
Democratic pollster, who is advising Priorities USA, a pro-Obama “super PAC.”
About 9 percent of all voters in 2008 were
white women without college degrees who had an annual household income of less
than $50,000, according to exit polls.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/us/politics/female-swing-voters-a-coveted-demographic.html?_r=3&partner=rss&emc=rss&
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/28/advantage_obama_in_hunt_for_270_electoral_votes/
Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely Virginia voters, although he lost the clearer 52-to-44 percent advantage he held in mid-September.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html
Electoral
vote analysis by Associated Press
“President
Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral
votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s
attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important
Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.”http://www.salon.com/2012/10/28/advantage_obama_in_hunt_for_270_electoral_votes/
Obama
leads in Virginia in poll that excludes conservative third-party candidates
“President
Obama is clinging to a slender four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in
Virginia as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial
battleground state, according to a new Washington Post poll.Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely Virginia voters, although he lost the clearer 52-to-44 percent advantage he held in mid-September.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Ohio
polling
“Surveys of the Buckeye State have been all over the board in recent weeks as the election draws near. While most show President Obama with the lead, the size of it depends on whether the pollster was using human beings or robots to do the interviewing.
TPM compared the two methods and found that polls conducted by a live interviewer, the method widely considered to be the gold standard, have shown the President with larger leads than polls conducted by automated calls, which are prohibited from contacting people through cell phones. Since early September, live polls have shown Obama with an average lead of 4.5 percentage points in Ohio while his average lead in robo-polls has been less than 2.”
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/ohio-polls-live-automated.php?ref=fpa
Friday, October 26, 2012
Unemployment
in the battleground states
“ … the health of the job markets in the key
“battleground” states will likely have a greater impact than the national,
headline number.”
Thursday, October 25, 2012
New
Hampshire
“New Hampshire’s role in electoral college calculations is secondary to that of Ohio, Virginia and Florida. But one particular election scenario is telling: If Romney can win those three states, along with North Carolina, he would need only New Hampshire’s four votes to win the White House if other states vote as predicted.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/for-obama-and-romney-small-new-hampshire-could-have-a-big-impact/2012/10/18/a34c91d4-1948-11e2-ad4a-e5a958b60a1e_story_1.html
Libertarian
votes in New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado
“Presidential swing states with libertarian and independent
streaks, such as Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire, are where Johnson threatens to be the biggest factor . .
. And his presence on the ballot appears
to imperil Romney's support more than Obama's.”
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
The ground
game
“Beyond the presidential debates, one final factor matters more than all
the rest in a close race: ground game.
It’s the ability to get your voters to the
polls—a way of moving soft support into actual votes.
Field
operatives have been undervalued in recent years, as the focus of campaigns has
shifted to big-money ad-bombs, compounded by the super-PAC economy. But this
presidential campaign is going to come down to a few percentage points in a
half dozen states, and suddenly ground game is about to get a lot of respect.
So The Daily Beast decided to map out the
Obama and Romney local headquarters across the country as one way of gauging
the strength of each campaign’s ground game. And what we found was an
overwhelming advantage—755 to 283—by the Obama campaign on at least this one
metric.
In the key swing states of this election
the numbers are stark:In Ohio, 122 Obama local HQs compared to 40 for Romney.
In Florida, the Obama campaign has 102 local HQs versus 48 for Romney.
And in Virginia, a more even split—47 for Obama compared to 29 for Romney.”
The
Tea Party ground game
“Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party-aligned group part-funded by the
billionaire Koch brothers, is building a state-of-the-art digital ground
operation in Ohio and other vital battleground states to spread its anti-Obama
message to voters who could decide the outcome of the presidential election.”
http://readersupportednews.org/news-section2/318-66/14070-koch-and-allies-build-vast-hi-tech-voter-lobbying-network
Some Republicans admit that the ground game is a weakness for the party. In Colorado, one top GOP consultant who has worked on presidential campaigns told me he mentally added 2 to 4 points to Obama's polls in the state based on superior organization. In Florida, GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart said Republicans would win in other ways: "They're very organized. They're very, very organized, and you have to admit they're very organized," Diaz-Balart said of the Democrats. "However, I think Republicans are very motivated."
We may not be able to fully size up the campaigns' ground games and their effect until Election Day -- and maybe not even then. But what struck me most, in talking to Republicans about their ground game, was the extent to which they admitted they weren't even playing the game. On Obama's voter registration advantage, for example, Wiley said it just wasn't something Republicans had really tried to do.
"We did some voter registration programs. They weren't massive in size, because most Republicans are already registered," he said. (This is somewhat belied by the GOP's hiring of a sketchy registration contractor in Florida.) Instead of trying to register more Republicans, Wiley said, the RNC focused its efforts on talking to independents. "That's much more reliable, because they're already registered to vote," he said. "There are enough voters on file in any given state that are registered to vote already that you can win with them. You don't need to add to the mix."
It's true that the Obama campaign's strategy is far more reliant on bringing new voters into the electorate -- particularly the young and minority voters who are less likely to register and vote. But if the Democrats can do that, it could make a big difference in a close election.
"If there's a blowout election, the ground game is nice," Bird, the Obama field director, said. "But in a state-by-state close contest for electoral votes, where it's deadlocked going in, if you know you expanded the electorate, and you know who those people are, and you have volunteers trained to turn them out -- that's what the ground game is engineered to do."
The
quality of the ground games
“It's not about how many people you
contact; it's who you're contacting and how. In 2008, the Obama campaign took
data-based voter targeting to a previously unseen level, as Sasha Issenberg
details in his new book The Victory Lab. In 2012,
they've far surpassed those techniques, in part by integrating field techniques
with digital operations. Some Republicans admit that the ground game is a weakness for the party. In Colorado, one top GOP consultant who has worked on presidential campaigns told me he mentally added 2 to 4 points to Obama's polls in the state based on superior organization. In Florida, GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart said Republicans would win in other ways: "They're very organized. They're very, very organized, and you have to admit they're very organized," Diaz-Balart said of the Democrats. "However, I think Republicans are very motivated."
We may not be able to fully size up the campaigns' ground games and their effect until Election Day -- and maybe not even then. But what struck me most, in talking to Republicans about their ground game, was the extent to which they admitted they weren't even playing the game. On Obama's voter registration advantage, for example, Wiley said it just wasn't something Republicans had really tried to do.
"We did some voter registration programs. They weren't massive in size, because most Republicans are already registered," he said. (This is somewhat belied by the GOP's hiring of a sketchy registration contractor in Florida.) Instead of trying to register more Republicans, Wiley said, the RNC focused its efforts on talking to independents. "That's much more reliable, because they're already registered to vote," he said. "There are enough voters on file in any given state that are registered to vote already that you can win with them. You don't need to add to the mix."
It's true that the Obama campaign's strategy is far more reliant on bringing new voters into the electorate -- particularly the young and minority voters who are less likely to register and vote. But if the Democrats can do that, it could make a big difference in a close election.
"If there's a blowout election, the ground game is nice," Bird, the Obama field director, said. "But in a state-by-state close contest for electoral votes, where it's deadlocked going in, if you know you expanded the electorate, and you know who those people are, and you have volunteers trained to turn them out -- that's what the ground game is engineered to do."
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Electoral
paths to the White House
“With
barely two weeks before Nov. 6, it's all about the electoral math. And as
uncertain and unpredictable as the campaign looks heading into the final
stretch, Ohio remains President Obama's best opportunity to block a Romney win
— and Romney's biggest hurdle.”
“In the hunt for 270, Obama starts with more states and
electoral votes in his column. Romney must take back from the incumbent some
states that Obama carried four years ago, including North Carolina and
Virginia, which had been reliably Republican until 2008.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/21/2012-swing-states_n_1997680.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012 Monday, October 22, 2012
Electoral
College opinion map weekly update
The average of 30 online Electoral College opinion maps
(with tossups) is currently:
Obama 239
Romney 198
Tossups 100
Last week, the averages were Obama 240, Romney 194 and
Tossups 104.
There are 13 online Electoral College opinion maps that assign
all electoral votes to either Obama or Romney, disregarding the margin of error
in the polls. The current average
(without tossups) is:
Obama 287
Romney 251
Tossups 0
Last week, the averages were Obama 297, Romney 240 and
Tossups 0.
The average of three online Electoral College odds makers (Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair) currently show Obama with a 64% probability of winning and Romney with a 36% probability of winning, unchanged from last week.